Yemen government’s return to Aden tests Riyadh’s bid to reshape strategy
The ability of Yemen’s newly formed government to operate effectively from the southern city of Aden will be a crucial test for Saudi Arabia, with the Gulf kingdom now steering the country’s trajectory, analysts say.
At the beginning of last month, Yemen’s Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) announced from Riyadh the formation of a new 35-member cabinet, with Shaya Mohsen al-Zindani as prime minister. Ministers were sworn in at the Yemeni embassy in the Saudi capital before gradually returning to Aden.
The move comes a month after the dissolution of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), Yemen's main separatist group, after it was routed by Saudi-backed Yemeni forces and lost southern territory it had controlled for years.
The dramatic developments led to the withdrawal from Yemen of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the STC’s main backer, leaving Saudi Arabia to manage Yemen largely on its own.
“The government’s return represents a test of Saudi Arabia’s ability to establish a viable model that could pave the way toward ending the crisis, particularly after Riyadh emerged as the primary external actor in Yemen,” Ali al-Fakih, editor of the Yemeni news site Al-Masdar Online, told Middle East Eye.
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To help bolster the government’s prospects, Saudi Arabia has strongly backed the authorities, purchasing millions of dollars’ worth of fuel for power stations and reportedly pledging to cover the salaries of security and military forces previously funded by Abu Dhabi.
Additionally, Riyadh took over the financing of humanitarian projects, including hospitals, that the UAE abruptly abandoned when it withdrew from Yemen.
Despite the rapid and wide deployment of Saudi-backed forces in Aden, the STC still holds influence in the city according to Fatima Abo Alasrar, a researcher and founder of the US-based The Ideology Machine.
“The cabinet’s return is a notable milestone, but we shouldn’t mistake physical presence for political control, and from what we can see, this remains difficult to achieve right now,” she said.
“The STC’s dissolution opened a window for ministers to enter, but they are effectively guests in a city where the security forces still answer to their old loyalties, regardless of their new titles or Saudi paycheques.”
Dismantling old centres of influence
Residents say images of STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi, who fled Yemen last month, and the group’s flags remain visible across its main base, Aden, while thousands of its fighters have kept a low profile.
Analysts say the government’s most immediate challenge is asserting control over Aden – a task that will require what Nadwa al-Dawsari, an associate fellow at the Middle East Institute, described as a “surgical approach”.
“The immediate challenge is stabilising Aden and ensuring that security forces on the ground fall in line with the government,” Dawsari told MEE.
Fakih agrees that dismantling UAE-backed forces that dominated the city for years, and unifying the security and military apparatus under government command, will be critical.
“In my view, establishing security will depend primarily on dismantling the old centres of influence that remain loyal to the UAE and rebuilding the security services on sound foundations, based on competence and loyalty to Yemeni legitimacy,” he said.
However, the STC appears unwilling to concede defeat. Thousands of its supporters have staged rallies in Aden and other southern cities, some turning violent as protesters gathered outside state institutions, including the presidential palace in the city, the provisional seat of government.
For the first time, the government is facing protests without clear leadership it can negotiate with. Zubaidi remains in an undisclosed location, while other senior figures have either switched sides or adopted a low profile.
“The government is now facing a headless opposition with no one at the table to talk to,” Alasrar said. “As seen with recent fatalities in Shabwah, when the state has no political interlocutor to handle grievances, it often defaults to suppression.”
Dawsari, while warning that “spoilers” could exploit anti-government sentiment to incite violence, stressed that authorities should provide space for lawful demonstrations.
“The government must allow space for peaceful protest while holding those who instigate violence accountable, and doing so strictly through due process,” she said.
Challenges ahead
Beyond security, restoring public services and improving salaries represent major tests for the new administration.
Saudi fuel shipments have helped reduce power cuts in Aden and other government-controlled areas for the first time in years, a development welcomed by residents enjoying longer electricity hours. But analysts note that winter demand is lower and maintaining supply during the summer heat will be the true measure of success.
'The immediate challenge is stabilising Aden and ensuring that security forces on the ground fall in line with the government'
- Nadwa Al-Dawsari, analyst
Public sector salaries remain another pressing concern. Wages have stagnated for nearly a decade, while the Yemeni rial has sharply depreciated.
University professors say their monthly income has fallen from around $1,200 before the war to roughly $200 today. Some military personnel have also reported not receiving salaries for several months.
Years of conflict have devastated infrastructure and services across Yemen. Health facilities have deteriorated, roads have gone without maintenance, and millions remain in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
“At the end of the day, improving services and showing results is the best approach to mitigating tensions and stabilising the situation,” Dawsari said.
Analysts also warn that regional rivalries could complicate efforts. The UAE, after losing influence following recent developments, may seek to undermine stability in southern Yemen through allied actors, potentially disrupting government operations.
If instability forces the government to withdraw from Aden again, it would represent a major setback not only for the PLC but also for Saudi Arabia’s broader strategy.
“Without a stable government capable of fully exercising its functions, the outcome would be a failure for the Presidential Leadership Council, the new administration, and ultimately Saudi Arabia – particularly as the UAE, after being pushed out of Yemen, may seek to obstruct stability,” Fakih said.
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