Why Yemen’s Houthis are hesitating to join Iran war, for now

Yemen’s Houthi movement is likely to intervene sooner or later in support of Tehran, but the timing and scale of any involvement will depend on how the conflict between Iran, the US and Israel unfolds, analysts say.

If the Houthis conclude that Iran, their main backer, is losing ground or facing an existential threat, they are likely to escalate militarily, according to observers.

“The Houthis are still studying the situation and will make their decision based on the challenges facing Iran,” Fatehi bin Lazreq, editor of the Aden al-Ghad newspaper, told Middle East Eye. “If they determine that the threat to the Iranian regime is existential, they will decide to fully engage in the war.”

In his first speech following US and Israeli air strikes on Iran on Saturday, the movement's leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, struck an unusually restrained tone, avoiding the fiery rhetoric that typically characterises his addresses. While expressing strong support for Tehran, he stopped short of explicitly pledging military backing.

After Iran announced the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Houthi delivered another relatively brief speech, shorter than his usually lengthy appearances, offering condolences to the Iranian people. Again, he refrained from committing to military action.

The Houthis view themselves as part of what is often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance”, a regional alliance of Iran-aligned armed groups that include Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hamas in Palestine, and an array of armed groups in Iraq. Syria was also part of the alliance before President Bashar al-Assad was deposed by rebels in December 2024.

The movement has long been perceived by its adversaries as a key Iranian proxy. Tehran’s provision of drones, ballistic missiles and military advisory support has been widely credited with enhancing its capabilities.

For years, successive Yemeni governments have accused Iran of fuelling unrest in the country by supplying the Houthis with weapons and expertise, including support for cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Lazreq said the Houthis understand that the fall of the Iranian establishment would likely halt weapons supplies, depriving the group of a strategic advantage over its domestic rivals.

“The Houthis believe that if the Iranian regime falls, they would become exposed, as the supply of drones and missiles, a key element of their strength in recent years, would cease,” he added.

Internal divisions

In late 2023, when Israel launched a brutal military campaign in Gaza, the Houthis swiftly entered the conflict, attacking international commercial vessels in the Red Sea and waters off Yemen. They later expanded their operations to other maritime routes and began launching drone and missile strikes towards Israel.

'Asset or liability?': Gulf's US security dependence under scrutiny as Iran lands blows

Read More »

This time, however, their response has been more cautious.

On Saturday, shortly after the joint US-Israeli operation on Iran began, the Associated Press quoted two Houthi sources as saying the movement would resume its attacks on Red Sea shipping. Houthi officials later denied the claim on social media.

Analysts say the contradictory statements may reflect internal divisions.

Yemeni political analyst Saleh al-Baydani said the movement is experiencing “sharp” disagreements over how to respond.

According to him, hardliners, whom he believes were behind the comments cited by AP, are pushing for direct military involvement in support of Iran, while other factions favour restraint.

“The report of renewed attacks, only to be quickly denied by another faction within the group, reflects a state of confusion and disarray,” Baydani wrote on X.

Yemeni conflict analyst Hisham al-Omeisy echoed that assessment, noting visible frustration among parts of the Houthi base.

He wrote on X: “Houthi base not happy with lackluster response so far. Hardliners in movement pressing for action, more to capitalize on moment and assert position in axis of resistance than to aid Iran. While others urging restraint.”

Calculated escalation

Despite pressure from hardliners, the group appears to be carefully calibrating its response to avoid serious repercussions, both domestically and internationally.

Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme, said the delay reflects domestic political calculations.

“The Houthis cannot risk being perceived as fighting a war solely in service of Iran rather than Yemen’s own interests,” he said on his Facebook page.

'The Houthis are still studying the situation and will make their decision based on the challenges facing Iran'

- Fatehi bin Lazreq, Aden al-Ghad editor

He described the movement's approach as one of “calculated escalation”, should it decide to act, adding that any move would likely be framed as self-defence rather than solidarity with Tehran.

At the same time, the Houthis are wary of provoking retaliatory US strikes on areas under their control - regions still reeling from previous waves of US and Israeli attacks.

In August last year, an Israeli strike killed the prime minister and several ministers in the Houthi-run administration. Other strikes hit Hodeidah port, Yemen’s largest seaport, as well as oil storage facilities, power stations and cement factories.

“The group is still recovering from major US strikes it suffered during the past year, which weakened an important aspect of its military structure, and entering into a new confrontation at this time carries obvious risks,” Muslimi said.

However, the Houthis, who have been engaged in warfare for more than two decades, could defy analysts’ expectations and move quickly to join the conflict in support of Iran.

Such a decision, Muslimi said, would likely come only if the group faced direct military attacks, or if Iranian or Hezbollah figures supporting the movement took the initiative and escalated on its behalf.

“The Houthis are not known for avoiding risks; the group is accustomed to operating in a war environment and has used conflict to sustain internal mobilisation, reinforce its ideological cohesion, and delay difficult political settlements,” he said.