Israeli police investigate Polymarket user who correctly predicted Iran strikes
Israeli police have opened an investigation into a bet made by a user on the gambling website Polymarket, which predicted that the US would strike Iran on 28 February, Israel's Channel 12 news reported.
A user named Magamyman made a gross profit of some $430,000 by successfully predicting the start of the war.
The report said it was not the first time the user had placed bets on events set to occur in Iran.
Polymarket, a US-based gambling platform, allows users to place bets on events as varied as the result of a football game to the outbreak of war or the collapse of a government.
Most of Magamyman’s profits were made by placing bets on Israeli attacks on Iran.
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In 2024, the user predicted Israel would attack Iran on 26 October that year, an attack that, according to Israeli security sources, was approved by the government only days before.
Israeli police are investigating whether the account is owned by someone with insider information or whether it is a case of luck.
According to a report in Globes, an Israeli financial news outlet, prior to the US-Israel attack on Iran on Saturday morning, about $529m worth of bets were placed regarding the date of the war starting.
The total of bets predicting a start date of 28 February was $90m, while a bet predicting a start date of 31 January had a volume of $42m.
Wider phenomenon
As Polymarket allows bets on political events that entail the prior knowledge of those involved in them, there has long been suspicion that political or military actors are using the platform to profit from decisions they are aware of.
In February, Israeli police arrested a number of soldiers suspected of placing bets off of classified information they had encountered.
Magamyman’s betting record also raised suspicion in the US, according to National Public Radio (NPR).
The user successfully predicted the date of the attack and also made a bet of around $553,000 predicting that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday.
Writing on X about allegations that insiders made $1.2m predicting that the US would attack Iran, Chris Murphy, a US senator from Connecticut, wrote that "it’s insane this is legal".
"People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”
According to the NPR report, "the White House denied anyone in Trump's orbit was behind the lucrative trades".
However, the report pointed out that US President Donald Trump's family has deep ties to Polymarket.
Donald Trump Jr, the president's son, is an adviser to the US betting platform, and his venture capital firm has invested millions in it over the years.
The Trump administration has also dropped two investigations into Polymarket that were opened by the Joe Biden administration.
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