Israeli commentator says Iran war will lead to ‘Sykes-Picot 2026’
An Israeli commentator has argued that the US-Israeli war against Iran could reshape the Middle East and potentially bring an end to the regional order established after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire following the First World War.
Writing in the Israeli outlet Yedioth Ahronoth, Meir Swissa said the current conflict could become a turning point for the region’s geopolitical structure.
“The Israeli-American war against Iran’s axis of evil is not just a military confrontation. It may be the conflict that finally erases the map drawn by Britain and France in 1916,” he wrote.
Swissa suggested that such a shift could undermine the modern nation-state system that has shaped the region for more than a century, potentially giving greater influence to tribal and clan-based political structures.
He argued that the weakening of Iran’s regional influence could expose the fragility of the network Tehran built through allied movements and governments across the Middle East.
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“We are watching, in real time, the collapse of the Sykes-Picot agreements and a return to the Middle East’s authentic structure - a mosaic of tribes, clans and local emirates,” he said.
Swissa also described what he called a paradox in which Israel has effectively acted on behalf of Sunni Arab interests in confronting Iran’s regional influence.
“Here lies the fascinating paradox: Israel has effectively become the contractor for the Sunni world,” he wrote, arguing that some Arab states that oppose Iran’s regional influence but are reluctant to confront it directly could benefit from a weakening of Tehran’s power.
According to the commentary, the erosion of Iranian power could weaken what he described as Tehran’s regional “Shia axis”, particularly in areas where influence has relied on allied groups backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“The moment the military strength of Iran’s proxies began to crack, ideology alone could no longer hold territory. Without the boot of the Revolutionary Guard in Beirut, Damascus and Sanaa, the Shiite axis reverts to its historical position - a persecuted and weakened minority in a hostile Sunni sea,” he wrote.
Swissa also suggested Kurdish groups could emerge as important actors in a changing regional landscape, arguing that the weakening of existing political frameworks could open the door to new arrangements.
“The inevitable finale is already visible on the horizon. If regime change in Tehran is completed, we could find ourselves at the opening of a historic peace conference - Sykes-Picot 2026,” he wrote.
Israel not interested in Sykes-Picot borders
In August 2025, former US special envoy Tom Barrack said Israel was not interested in adhering to the Middle East’s established borders created after World War I.
In an interview with online personality Mario Nawfal, Barrack said Israel viewed the borders drawn under the Sykes-Picot Agreement as effectively “meaningless”, adding that the country had the “capacity or the desire” to take control of territories in Lebanon and Syria.
Barrack also said Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa would not sign the Abraham Accords with Israel, and suggested ties between Egypt and Israel were deeply strained.
Barrack, at the time, was the US ambassador to Turkey and later became Trump’s envoy to the wider Eastern Mediterranean and the Caucasus.
The Sykes-Picot arrangement helped shape many modern borders in the Middle East, including those of Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. It has long been criticised for drawing boundaries that ignored ethnic, tribal and sectarian realities.
Over the past week, tensions across the Middle East have sharply escalated following a widening conflict after the United States and Israel jointly attacked Iran and killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with other senior officials.
US President Donald Trump has since demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender”, while Nato raised its ballistic missile defence posture after a missile was launched towards Turkey.
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