Armed Iranian Kurds weigh role in potential US-backed ground assault

Iranian Kurdish opposition groups have neither confirmed nor denied reports of a possible ground advance from Iraq into western Iran amid the ongoing US-Israeli war.

Despite reports that Washington is considering backing an opposition-led assault, the White House has yet to take a final decision on its next move, sources have told Middle East Eye.

A source within the Komala party, which has waged an insurgency against the Iranian state for decades, told MEE that it was the "right time now" to return to their hometowns after 47 years in exile.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said people in the Kurdish region of Iran - known to Kurds as Rojhelat - were "waiting for the peshmerga [fighters]", but cautioned that "we should wait and we need time".

Siamand Moeini, a senior figure in the armed Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), told MEE: "I am not sure I have enough information", regarding the prospect of going to war with Tehran.

Amanj Zebaii, the Erbil representative of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), another group long involved in insurgency against the Iranian state, said that if Iranian Kurdish fighters were inside Iran, "everything is possible".

Another senior Kurdish leader, speaking anonymously, said he could not confirm whether forces would soon cross into Iran.

A senior Kurdish security source also said "the time has not come yet" when asked about the prospect of Kurdish-American military coordination on the ground.

He added that the five Kurdish opposition parties that recently allied to form the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan were pursuing a "third way" - aligning themselves neither with "the mullahs' regime nor with the attacking forces".

Arming the opposition  

Reports in US media on Tuesday said the White House is exploring options to back Kurdish opposition factions as part of efforts to support regime change in Tehran. 

The Wall Street Journal reported that US President Donald Trump is open to supporting armed groups inside Iran, including Kurdish factions in the country's northwest.

CNN reported that the CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces in an attempt to spark an uprising. A senior Iranian Kurdish official reportedly told the network that armed groups "are expected to take part in a ground operation in western Iran in the coming days".

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Axios reported that there were calls between Trump and senior Iraqi Kurdish leaders, including Masoud Barzani of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Bafel Talabani of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). The PUK later confirmed that a call had taken place.

CNN further reported that the Trump administration had spoken with Mustafa Hijri, president of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI).

Some Kurdish sources confirmed that discussions had taken place, while others suggested there had only been an online meeting between members of the US Congress and Kurdish leaders.

The reports coincide with intensified bombing in Iraqi and Iranian Kurdish areas since the US and Israel launched their offensive on Saturday.

Heavy US-Israeli air strikes hit military and intelligence facilities along Iran's western border on Monday. Following the bombardment, detainees at the Central Prison of Marivan were released, according to the Hengaw Organization for Human Rights.

Zebaii said the strikes - in Mariwan, Urmiyeh, Sanandaj, Kermanshah and other cities - targeted intelligence bases and facilities belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

"In Mahabad, the intelligence service facility was reportedly completely taken down. In Sanandaj, the intelligence service was attacked twice," he said.

"Mariwan was also targeted. In several cities across Rojhelat, intelligence service bases appear to have been the primary targets. We understand that some of these bases have been destroyed," he added.

Border tensions 

Across the border, Tehran has been targeting opposition groups in Iraq's Kurdistan Region with drone strikes, including a former PDKI camp.

Zhila Mostajer, co-founder of Hengaw, told MEE that Kurdish parties based in Iraq were targeted more than five times between Saturday and Monday in various locations.

She added that some of the attacks were intercepted and neutralised by US missile defence systems.

Trifa Zarei, from the human rights organisation Hana, said the strikes should not be viewed simply as reactive measures.

"The repeated Iranian attacks cannot be analysed merely as a short-term military response," Zarei told MEE.

'It appears that these operations... are part of a broader strategy to destabilise and ultimately weaken the Iranian regime'

- Hana Yazdanpana, PAK foreign relations 

"Rather, they are part of a long-term strategy of political containment.

"Over the past four decades, Tehran has defined any form of Kurdish political organisation outside its control as a potential threat to domestic stability, particularly in Rojhelat."

Tensions along the border had been building for weeks, even before the war began.

Since January, Iran has reportedly deployed additional military equipment and reinforced ground troops along its western frontier.

As the US built up its forces in the region, five major Iranian Kurdish opposition parties established a new alliance on 22 February, just a week before the war began.

The Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan - comprising the PDKI, PJAK, Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) and the Khabat Organisation - was formed with the stated aim of working together towards the "overthrow of the Islamic Republic of Iran".

Moeini of PJAK said Kurdish parties were "united in fighting against tyranny" and that his group was well prepared to withstand attacks from Tehran.

Hana Yazdanpana, a member of PAK's foreign relations department, told MEE that she understands the recent Israeli strikes in the border areas as being linked to Iran's militarisation of frontier cities and the presence of IRGC bases there.

"However, it appears that these operations are not aimed specifically at local groups; rather, they are part of a broader strategy to destabilise and ultimately weaken the Iranian regime," she said.

Trust issues

While exiled in Iraq, some of these groups have accumulated fighting experience in recent years, which could explain the US's interest in engaging with them.

PAK was one of the few Iranian Kurdish groups that, with coalition support, fought against ISIS in Iraq. It also clashed with Iranian-backed armed groups and the Iraqi army in 2017.

PJAK could similarly benefit from fighters who previously served with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against ISIS and are now leaving Syria under the January agreement between Damascus and the SDF. Many of these fighters have experience in drone warfare.

"The US would want to have a vanguard of Iranian Kurdish, or even foreign Kurdish, fighters to lead any potential uprising in Iran," Nicholas Heras, interim executive director at the US-based Middle East Policy Council, told MEE.

"Those fighters would be the key interlocutors with US or allied personnel supporting an armed uprising throughout northwest Iran."

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Heras added that a critical factor to watch is whether Kurdish fighters from Iraq and Syria - who have experience coordinating with the US air force - would form part of these forces.

"Those operatives are the most valuable potential local partners to the US in the scenario of a US-backed Kurdish armed uprising in Iran," he said.

However, trust remains a major issue that would need to be addressed before any renewed cooperation with the US.

When the Syrian government launched an operation to regain control of northwestern Syria from the SDF, Kurdish groups felt abandoned in favour of the new administration in Damascus.

US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack said during the operation that the SDF's role as the "primary anti-ISIS force on the ground" had "largely expired".

The Komala party source said that no guarantees have been offered to the Kurdish groups amid the reported plans to arm them.  

"The Kurdish groups could also seek guarantees for Kurdish rights in a post-ayatollah Iran - broadly speaking, something like democratic federalism," Haidar Khezri, associate professor at the University of Central Florida, told MEE.

"Importantly, they would want assurances they will not be sidelined or 'sold out', as happened with Rojava [Kurdish region in northeast Syria], once the ayatollahs are gone," he added.

Is an advance feasible? 

While opposition groups may feel they have grounds to fight Tehran in western Iran, many questions remain over their ability to achieve the long-term changes sought by Israel and the US.

Ryan O'Leary, an American who volunteered with various Iranian Kurdish armed groups from 2014 to 2018 and is now serving with the Ukrainian army, said the opposition could cross the border and take territory initially, but not without foreign support.

"The main challenge will be countering regime forces, which will ultimately be deployed against any concentrated Kurdish uprising," he told MEE. 

O'Leary explained that to withstand a counter-offensive from Tehran and establish a foothold, the groups would require concrete support from the US or Israel.

"Without drone teams, they need air support to counter large regime counterattacks and build-ups," he said.

Without such backing, the Kurdish forces cannot simply defend against what would likely be a substantial counter-assault.

'If the central state fragments without fully collapsing, Kurdish forces could find themselves exposed'

- Shamal Bishir, former member of PJAK

Shamal Bishir, a former member of PJAK, said that if Kurdish groups joined the assault, they would act both politically and militarily.

"If sustained bombardment were to significantly weaken Tehran's command-and-control structures, Kurdish parties might calculate that the window for intervention has opened," Bishir told MEE.

"In such a scenario, they would likely move quickly, reactivating civilian councils and local governance structures, drawing on historical precedents from the post-1979 period, when Kurdish cities organised themselves through grassroots councils."

However, Bishir cautioned that holding territory would be far from easy. 

He emphasised the disparity between the number of Kurdish forces and the scale of Iran's Kurdish region, which spans roughly 125,000 sq km.

"Intervention is one thing; protection is another," he said.

"Establishing local authority requires the capacity to defend cities and civilians, not only against remnants of the regime, but also against regional backlash and shifting international priorities.

"If the central state fragments without fully collapsing, Kurdish forces could find themselves exposed, holding territory without the means to secure it."

Additional reporting by Adam Chamseddine in Beirut