Iran has ability to prolong war on US and Israel, says top Iranian military expert
Iran could sustain its response to the US and Israel for weeks if it reduces the scale of its missile barrages, according to Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute.
Speaking to Middle East Eye, Mahmoudian said Iran’s missile stockpile remains large enough to support a prolonged conflict in the war launched by the US and Israel on 28 February.
The key, he argued, would be reducing the number of missiles fired in each attack. “If Iran keeps the volume of each barrage below 50 missiles, it can prolong this war for weeks,” said Mahmoudian, an expert on Iran’s military and regional policy.
“Iran has no problem with the number of missiles and possesses a significant stock of projectiles, especially now that the battlefield has expanded across the Middle East and it can rely on a large part of its arsenal, including short-range missiles.”
However, scaling down attacks would also reduce their impact, he noted.
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“If the number of missiles in each attack is reduced, the cost of that attack for the other side, especially for Israel, which is far from Iran, will also decline.”
Mahmoudian said Iran faces two major operational challenges in deploying its missile arsenal - challenges that also surfaced in June 2025, when Israel and the US bombed Iran for 12 days.
“Iran has two main problems,” he said. “The first is losing launchers to US and Israeli strikes. The second, which is discussed less often, is access to the missiles stored in underground bases.”
On Thursday, the Israeli military said it had disabled “more than 300 ballistic missile launchers”.
Missile launchers and missile cities
The weapons stored in underground bases are kept in heavily fortified “missile cities” or subterranean storage facilities. During the 12 days of conflict, Mahmoudian said, Israeli strikes targeted the entrances to some of these bases, limiting Iran’s ability to retrieve and deploy its missiles.
“Israel attacked and shut the entrance gates to these bases,” he said. “Iran’s access to its missiles was, if not closed, then limited. Iran tries to reopen the path, and the US and Israel close it again.”
If the war drags on and launchers continue to be destroyed, Iran may resort to improvised solutions, including converting commercial trucks into mobile missile launchers.
'Iran's first problem is losing launchers to US and Israeli strikes. The second, which is discussed less often, is access to the missiles stored in underground bases'
- Arman Mahmoudian, military and security expert
“This idea has been raised before and has been used in some cases,” Mahmoudian said. “But it takes time and requires facilities that can operate without being targeted by Israeli or American attacks.”
On the US side, Mahmoudian said recent developments suggest the conflict may be more costly than initially expected. He pointed to reports that the White House is seeking an additional $50bn in funding for the war.
“The news that the US government is requesting a $50bn budget, along with reports that Arab countries are asking Washington to replenish ammunition for their defence systems, indicates the cost of Iran’s attacks,” he said.
At the same time, the military and security expert noted that US strikes over the past two days have intensified significantly, suggesting Washington is attempting to cripple Iran’s offensive capabilities.
“The scale of US attacks has become very widespread and massive,” he said. “This shows that the US believes it must first paralyse Iran’s offensive system.”
Russia and Iran
Mahmoudian dismissed the likelihood of Russia directly entering the war, citing several strategic reasons.
“First, this war benefits Russia economically,” he said, noting that rising oil prices and disruption in East Asian markets could boost Russian energy revenues. “Second, if the war continues, European countries may have to divert ammunition and defence systems originally intended for Ukraine to Arab states.”
He added that Moscow may still hope to secure a favourable offer from Washington on the war in Ukraine and would therefore avoid a direct confrontation with the US over Iran.
“Most importantly,” Mahmoudian said, “Russia maintains deep and extensive relations with both Israel and the Persian Gulf countries, and intervening in this war could jeopardise those ties.”
Highlighting the depth of Russia’s relationship with Israel, Mahmoudian pointed to the strong demographic and historical links between the two countries.
“Russian is among the top five languages spoken in Israel,” he said. “A significant portion of Israel’s Ashkenazi Jewish population comes from Russia or speaks Russian, and Russia itself hosts more than 100,000 Russian-Israeli citizens.”
Military cooperation has also played a role in the relationship, Mahmoudian added, noting that before the war in Ukraine, Israel contributed to the modernisation of Russia’s military drone capabilities and provided certain technologies.
Israel has also been careful not to cross Russian red lines in regional conflicts, he said.
“For example, Israel did not provide Ukraine with the technology for the Iron Dome, even though it could have,” Mahmoudian said. “In Syria, Israel targeted Iranian and Syrian military positions but avoided Russian facilities.”
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